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St Martin’s Summer – not really on the cards in Kent for 2019

Folklore says St Martin’s Day, 11 November, brings with it a settled spell of weather known as St Martin’s Summer.

Disappointingly, the UKMO forecast chart for St Martin’s Day (weathercharts.org), 11 November 2019 leads to a text book forecast: blustery showers, some of which will merge to give longer outbreaks of rain.

UKMO forecast chart for St Matin's Day - 11/11/19 — UKMO forecast chart for St Matin’s Day – 11/11/19

History (wikipedia) tells us that St Martin was a Roman cavalry soldier who resettled as a Bishop on leaving the army. Leaving the Roman equivalent of brightly coloured trousers behind, his Christian career gained some meteorological notoriety in a snow storm. Turning the tools of his military career to pastoral use he cut his cloak in two in order to share half of it with a beggar.

Höchster_Schloß_Tor_St_Martin.jpg — Statue of Saint Martin cutting his cloak in two above the Höchst Castle’s gate

By Eva K. / Eva K. – Eva K. / Eva K., CC BY-SA 2.5, Link

Mid-latitude weather can always be relied upon to give some settled spells and there is enough lore out there to expect such a respite on many dates. In fact, Shakespeare connects St Martin’s Summer with a similar spell of calm weather, halcyon days, expected at the solstice. Henry VI, Part 1, act 1, scene 2, line 131:

Expect Saint Martin’s summer, halcyon days.

The current forecast from the Met Office doesn’t really promise summer:

with heavy rain for the commute. Tuesday and Wednesday seem better, but low pressure is not far away.

The time is always ripe for some continued Autumnal feasting as depicted in the featured image.

October 2019 UK Weather Headlines

Source: UKMO Climate Summaries and Wetterzentrale Archives

Summary

October 2019 was a typical Autumnal month of mobile UK-Atlantic weather with a succession of depressions, fronts and high-pressure systems bringing unsettled and changeable weather. At the at the start of the month the ‘eyeballed’ mean low pressure track was to the North West, with depressions moving to the North East through the Iceland/Hebrides gaps trailing fronts across the country giving rain with some settled spells in between. As the month progressed, this track gradually moved south, as befits the transition of the seasons. Slower moving complex lows were centred over the UK on and around the 20th. These were followed by some more intense areas of high pressure responsible for the hard frost in Scotland at the end of the month.

Averages

Mean Temperature	9.0 °C (-0.5 °C compared to average)
Rainfall	109% of average
Sunshine	95% of average

Extremes

Max Temperature	21.3 °C	Trawsgoed (Dyfed) 1/10/19
Min Temperature	-6.0 °C	Altnaharra (Sutherland) on the 31/10/19
Max Rainfall	101.0 mm	Lebanus (Powys) on 26/10/19
Max Wind Gust	66 kt (76 mph)	Needles (Isle of Wight) on 18/10/19

UK Sea Level Predictions to 2300

Source: UKMO UK Sea Level Projections

Beach hut owners on the North Kent Coast acquired their plots in the full knowledge that the once if fifty year storm would reduce their hut to broken planks. In fact the last weather disaster in the folk memory was the great flood of 1953. In fact, the University of Brighton’s Screen Archives South East supplies some photographic evidence of the aftermath:

Hampton - Herne Bay 1953 — Hampton – Herne Bay 1953, Screen Archive South East University of Brighton

The Met Office’s UK Sea Level Projections to 2300 reports that “at some locations the 1 in 10,000-year flood event of today could be expected more than once per year by 2300”. This seems to be bad news for beach hut owners; the once in fifty year storm might be expected every week!

These new sea level projections developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre have been published in a report by the Environment Agency. They show continued rise beyond 2100 under all climate change scenarios.

Sea Level Projections Sheerness (UKMO) — extended sea level projections London (Sheerness) – UKMO

Important news for all; not just beach huts at stake.