East Africa rains takes lives and destroy infrastructure – El Nino?

News reports communicate that heavy rain, flooding and landslides have taken lives and destroyed infrastructure in East Africa over the last month or so.  Some point the finger at El Nino as being the culprit.

The Africa Rainfall Climatology (NOAA NCEP), which estimates rainfall based on satellite derived cloud top temperature fused with station observations and other measurements, shows considerable areas of above average rainfall (see featured image).

Enhanced tropical rainfall in this region is associated with El Nino with its greater than average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.  A chart of current sea surface temperature anomalies follows.

160509SSTAnomaly
SST Anomaly Apr-May 2016

Latest guidance from NOAA NCEP is that El Nino is present and is weakening.

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